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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.