A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
