Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.