‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As military actions on Iran impede energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply cannot be found," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are switching to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a financial hub, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the government insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and officials say supplies are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been triggered by rumors. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through diversification. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.